Common Trajectory Prediction Capability for Decision Support Tools

Trajectory prediction capabilities are an essential building block for most if not all Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools (DSTs). DST applications range from en route to terminal operations with advisories ranging from passive flow suggestions to active clearance/instructions. Many past DSTs have been fielded with their own unique trajectory prediction capability. The objective of this paper is to identify significant performance factors and design considerations for developing a Common Trajectory Prediction Capability. A system engineering approach is used to resolve key design issues and tradeoffs such as the balance between prediction accuracy and computational speed for a variety of DST applications. We conclude that controller intent uncertainty is a major source of prediction error. This can be mitigated by the use of control advisories generated by advanced DSTs that close the control loop. This approach requires the higher accuracy requirements of advanced DSTs to be addressed through the design of the trajectory prediction function itself. Key issues are the approach for aircraft performance modeling, the flight path integration logic and software implementation issues.